Melbourne Cup is tomorrow and I have never bet on a horse - how does a first-timer pick one without just guessing?
The Melbourne Cup is tomorrow and I have never watched a horse race in my life, but my friends are all doing a sweep and I do not want to just pick a horse because I like its name. I know it is the big one in Australia, two miles, huge field, and apparently some billionaire just put millions on it. For a total beginner with one fun bet: is there anything actually worth checking, like recent form or the barrier draw, or is it honestly all luck at that field size? And where do people in the US even watch it?
1 answer
- Form at the distance, not the name
Check two things and ignore the rest: the horse's last two runs at a staying distance, and whether it has handled a wet track. In a 24-horse field over two miles, most of the field has never stayed the trip, so a horse that has actually run out a strong 2800m-plus race is already ahead of half of them. The name means nothing.