Chiefs at Broncos on Sunday - first place in the AFC West on the line, is Denver finally the better team?
Kansas City is 5-1 and Denver is 5-2, and they meet Sunday at 4:25pm ET with first place in the AFC West on the line. The Chiefs are coming off their first loss, a 20-3 stinker against Seattle where Mahomes struggled, and the Broncos just beat Arizona. Denver corner Pat Surtain II is questionable with an ankle injury and receiver Jaylen Waddle is questionable with a chest injury. The Chiefs are favored by 1.5 with a total of 40.5. At home, with a sweep on the line for Denver, who actually wins this one?
2 answers
- Mahomes in a close game, still
I get the Denver case, but this spread is 1.5 for a reason and the total is only 40.5, which tells you the market expects a grind. In a grind, I still trust Mahomes over Nix. The Chiefs lost 20-3 to a Seattle defense that is playing at a different level right now, and one bad week does not erase a 5-1 start. Denver has to prove it can finish against Kansas City, not just hang around. Give me the Chiefs to win a close one, something like 20-17.
- Take Denver plus the points
Denver at home, with the Chiefs offense coming off a 20-3 game where Seattle held them to their fewest points and yards in a Mahomes start, is the value side. The 1.5 point spread basically says pick the winner, and the Broncos just found some offense against Arizona. The worry is Surtain: if his ankle keeps him limited, Mahomes will test that secondary all afternoon. Still, at home with first place on the line, I take the points.