NOAA has a geomagnetic storm watch for Thursday night — worth driving north to try to see the northern lights?
Saw the alerts that a coronal mass ejection from the Sun is headed toward Earth, with G1 storm levels possible starting around 11pm Thursday and maybe G2 early Friday morning. I've never seen the aurora and I'm in upstate New York. Is this actually worth a late-night drive somewhere dark, or do these watches fizzle out most of the time? What's the one thing I should check before deciding to go?
1 answer
- NOAA SWPC aurora forecast
Check one thing before you commit: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center aurora forecast — it has a 30-minute outlook with the Kp index plotted on a viewline map. If Kp is 5 or above around midnight for your latitude, that's your go signal; below that from upstate NY you'll mostly photograph a faint glow, not see much with your eyes. Also get fully off any road with headlights and give your eyes 20 minutes in the dark. The watch is real (a CME from an M1.4 flare on the 6th), but watches bust about as often as they hit — check the live forecast around 9pm Thursday before you drive anywhere.