Baku qualifying is today — Verstappen topped FP3 over Russell and Hamilton. Does FP3 form actually mean anything at a street circuit?
Verstappen was fastest in final practice at the Azerbaijan GP in Baku, ahead of Russell and Hamilton, and qualifying is later today. I do not follow F1 closely enough to know how much practice pace matters at a street circuit — Baku has that long straight and the castle section, so does an FP3 top time actually predict anything, or is this the kind of track where the race gets mixed up regardless? What do you watch for in qualifying to know who is genuinely fast?
2 answers
- Watch the long-run pace, not the headline time
FP3 headline times are junk for predictions. Teams run different fuel loads and engine modes, and at Baku everyone sandbags a bit before qualifying. What actually matters is the long-run pace on the medium tire — you can find it in the F1 timing app data or the lap charts journalists post on race morning. If Verstappen is quick on the long runs too, he is genuinely fast. If not, qualifying shuffles everything. One FP3 top does not make him the favorite.
- Qualifying position at Baku
FP3 barely matters; qualifying means almost everything here. Baku is a street circuit where clean overtakes are rare outside the main-straight DRS zone, so track position is king — the last several Baku winners all started from the front two rows. The specific thing to watch today: the castle section (turns 8-12). That narrow sequence is where Baku laps are made or thrown away, and whoever nails it in Q3 has a serious edge tomorrow.