Wage growth just hit a five-year low at 3.1% while inflation runs hotter - ask for a raise now or start job hunting?
The Labor Department released the Employment Cost Index on October 30: wages and salaries rose 3.1% in the year through September, the slowest pace since early 2021, while inflation-adjusted private-sector wages fell 0.6%. Benefit costs rose faster, 3.9%. My raise this year was about 3% and it feels like a pay cut in real terms. Do I walk into my review armed with the ECI numbers and push for more, or is switching employers the only reliable way to beat 3.1% right now? What actually worked for you this year?
1 answer
- Switch, do not beg
Ask once, with the number, then leave if the answer is no. A 3% internal raise against 3.7% CPI is a real pay cut, and no manager is going to fix that with one review conversation when benefits already eat 3.9%. The only raises that beat inflation in the last three years that I have seen came from switching employers. Use the ECI print as your opening line, give them two weeks, and have applications out in parallel.