Amazon reports Q3 earnings tonight after the close - what number actually moves the stock?
Amazon reports third quarter results after the close tonight. Consensus is revenue around 202 billion dollars, up about 12 percent, and EPS around 1.96. AWS is expected near 45.6 billion after growing 37 percent last quarter, and CEO Andy Jassy said AWS capacity is sold out for 2026 and largely sold out for 2027. Capex guidance is around 220 billion for 2026. Alphabet fell after missing this week while Microsoft rose after beating. With Anthropic gains muddying headline EPS, what should a regular holder actually watch tonight: AWS growth, capex guidance, or something else?
1 answer
- Watch AWS growth, ignore headline EPS
Headline EPS is noise this quarter because Amazon books gains and losses on its Anthropic stake. Last quarter 53.4 billion dollars of non-operating income, mostly Anthropic, lifted EPS to 5.75, so a beat or miss on EPS tells you almost nothing about the business. The real test is AWS: it grew 37 percent last quarter to 42.2 billion, and consensus wants about 45.6 billion now. If AWS holds above 35 percent while Jassy explains the 220 billion capex plan, the stock has a case. If AWS slips, no EPS print saves it.