Bitcoin is down ~35% from the $126K peak — is anyone here actually buying this dip, or waiting?
Bitcoin is trading around $82.7K after a week that liquidated 110K+ traders in 24 hours. Santiment says $1.03B in realized profits were taken in a single day, the second-largest of 2026. The Fear & Greed Index is at its lowest reading ever, about 44% of circulating supply is held at a loss, and "bitcoin going to zero" searches are at an all-time high. My position is small and I can afford to wait, but I genuinely cannot tell if this is the cycle bottom or the first leg down. What metric would actually convince you it is bottoming rather than just bouncing?
1 answer
- 200-week MA is the only line I watch
In every major cycle the 200-week moving average has marked the bottom zone. Weekly RSI is at historic lows, below 2022 levels. The drawdown from $126K is about 35%, which in percentage terms is milder than summer 2021 (65K to 28K, roughly 55%), and that recovered to a new all-time high before the cycle ended. The capitulation checklist — Fear & Greed low, search spikes, supply at a loss — is flashing together, which historically precedes bottoms. But bottoms are zones, not moments, and they can drag for months. If you are DCA-ing money you can lose, the zone argument is fair. If you are lump-summing on a single signal, that is just timing with extra steps.