Fed decision this week — lock my refinance rate now or wait for a cut?
I'm refinancing from a 7.1% ARM into a 30-year fixed. My lender is offering 6.35% with a 45-day lock, and keeps telling me the Fed is 'probably' cutting this week so I should wait. The lock costs me nothing extra but I'd lose the 6.35% quote if I let it expire. Anyone actually been through this? Did a Fed cut move mortgage rates for real, or is the market already pricing it in? I don't want to gamble a quarter point on a headline.
1 answer
- Lock with a float-down option
The part lenders don't advertise: ask for a float-down lock. You lock the 6.35% today, and if rates drop 0.25%+ before closing you get the lower rate once (small fee, usually 0.25 points or less). Run the math: 0.25% on a $400k loan is about $60/month, ~$2,600 over 4 years — the float-down fee is cheaper than gambling. And yes, mortgage rates usually price in Fed moves weeks ahead; the actual cut day rarely moves your quote. Get the lock IN WRITING, not a verbal promise from the loan officer.