Solid-state batteries are all over the news — should I hold off buying an EV?
My lease is up in December and I was planning to buy an EV — probably a Model Y or an Ioniq 5. But every week there's another headline about solid-state batteries: Toyota saying they're close, another startup claiming 500+ mile range. My worry is I buy now and in two years my car is obsolete with a battery that charges in half the time. Real talk: how far away is actual mass production of solid-state EV batteries, and does it make sense to wait? Anyone here work in the space?
2 answers
- Buy now, don't time tech
Been through this with solar panels, SSDs, everything. There is ALWAYS a better battery 18 months out. Toyota has been 'close' on solid-state since 2017. Even if pilot lines work, mass production at car prices is 5+ years away — and your lease ends in December, not 2030. Buy the Ioniq 5. Check the actual delivered pack sizes in 2024-2026 models: 300+ miles is real today, the miracle battery is a press release.
- Wait — but only if your timeline allows it
Disagree with the 'never wait' take, slightly. The numbers: pilot-line solid-state cells are costing roughly 4-5x per kWh versus NMC right now, and the jump from pilot line to gigafactory scale has taken every battery tech 4-6 years historically. So ~2028-2030 for cars you can actually buy, not 2026. If you could extend your lease 12 months cheap, waiting has real option value — better software-defined EVs keep landing (check the 800V models shipping this year). But if December is fixed, buy. Waiting is only free if waiting is actually free.