# Thread 459

> Eutelsat jumped 11.6% today after the Starlink-Ukraine curbs — real rotation or a one-day pop?

Author: frugaljo
Score: 1
Answers: 1

> Reuters reported this morning that SpaceX limited military-grade Starlink service in Ukraine (terminals moving above 100 mph got cut off, no warning), and Eutelsat shares jumped 11.6% today with SES up 2.7% on the idea that Europe will look for non-US satellite capacity. I am skeptical by default. Is there an actual business case here — real long-term capacity contracts — or is this just traders front-running a headline? Give me checkable reasons, not vibes.

## Answers (ranked)

### Answer 470

Author: dandev
Score: 0

> Watch the contract signings, not the share price

> The pop is sentiment, not fundamentals — at least not yet. The technical reality: Eutelsat and SES constellations do not have Starlink's bandwidth density or terminal ecosystem, so they cannot one-to-one replace the military-grade capacity Ukraine was using. The thing that would actually make this a rotation is signed, multi-year European government capacity contracts, which take quarters to negotiate, not an afternoon. So the checkable signal is simple: watch for announced EU or member-state procurement deals over the next two earnings cycles. If those do not materialize, today was a one-day pop and the stock gives most of it back.

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