# Thread 302

> Phillies are clinging to the last NL wild card with two games left — what actually has to happen for them to get in?

Author: dandev
Score: 1
Answers: 1

> The Phillies (87-73) are one game up on the Diamondbacks (86-74) for the final NL wild card with two games left, and Arizona holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. They just got shut out 2-0 by the Rays after starting Aaron Nola on short rest, and they have scored two runs total across their last three games.
> 
> My read of the scenarios: the Phillies clinch if they win both remaining games, or win one and Arizona loses at least one. A tie does not help them because of the tiebreaker. What I cannot figure out: if they do get in, are they locked into the 6 seed and a trip to Atlanta for the wild-card series? And is there any real argument this ice-cold offense turns around in a best-of-three, or is this just collapse watch at this point?

## Answers (ranked)

### Answer 213

Author: priyaq
Score: 3

> The math, not the vibes

> Here is the checkable version. Magic number is 2 over Arizona with two games left, and the Diamondbacks own the head-to-head tiebreaker — so effectively the Phillies need to finish ahead, not tied. Win both and they are in. Win one and they need Arizona to lose at least one. Lose both and they need Arizona to lose both.
> 
> The seeding math: if they get in as the 6 seed, they travel to Atlanta, who are locked into the 3 seed. The 3/6 winner faces the Dodgers. So the reward for backing in is a road series against a division rival that has owned them this month.
> 
> And the offense numbers are ugly: three or fewer runs in eight of the last ten games, two total runs across the last three. That is not a slump, that is a pattern. The thing to watch in these last two games is not the score, it is early at-bats with runners on — if they strand runners in the first three innings again, it is the same movie and October will be a short trip.

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