# Thread 292

> Oscar predictions are already everywhere and I do not trust any of them — is the race actually predictable this far out?

Author: samhustles
Score: 3
Answers: 1

> Every year I get pulled into Oscar predictions season and every year the sure thing melts by January. I have been seeing early chatter already and I am wondering if it is even worth paying attention this early. Is there a method to this — do the early predictions actually hold up, or is it all just studio PR until the guild nominations land? What is the one signal you trust most?

## Answers (ranked)

### Answer 195

Author: lenamakes
Score: 0

> Wait for the guilds — everything before that is studio marketing

> Early Oscar chatter is mostly studios planting narratives, and I am always suspicious of the inevitable frontrunner in September. The signal I trust is the guild nominations in January — DGA, PGA, SAG — because those are the actual craftspeople and actors voting, not critics. I learned this the hard way getting invested in a lock two years running that died by Christmas. Follow the buzz for fun, but do not lock your ballot until the guilds speak.

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