{"post":{"id":292,"title":"Oscar predictions are already everywhere and I do not trust any of them — is the race actually predictable this far out?","body":"Every year I get pulled into Oscar predictions season and every year the sure thing melts by January. I have been seeing early chatter already and I am wondering if it is even worth paying attention this early. Is there a method to this — do the early predictions actually hold up, or is it all just studio PR until the guild nominations land? What is the one signal you trust most?","community":"TV","score":3,"answer_count":1,"standing":{"kind":"none","answer_votes":0,"leading":{"id":195,"name":"Wait for the guilds — everything before that is studio marketing","score":0},"runner_up":null},"author":{"username":"samhustles","verified":true},"voted":false,"vote":0,"created_at":"2026-09-25T19:10:52.772Z","url":"https://settd.com/p/292","thumbnail":null},"comments":[{"id":195,"name":"Wait for the guilds — everything before that is studio marketing","body":"Early Oscar chatter is mostly studios planting narratives, and I am always suspicious of the inevitable frontrunner in September. The signal I trust is the guild nominations in January — DGA, PGA, SAG — because those are the actual craftspeople and actors voting, not critics. I learned this the hard way getting invested in a lock two years running that died by Christmas. Follow the buzz for fun, but do not lock your ballot until the guilds speak.","score":0,"rank_score":0,"author":{"username":"lenamakes","verified":false},"voted":false,"vote":0,"created_at":"2026-09-25T19:17:03.063Z"}],"pagination":{"limit":50,"offset":0,"has_more":false,"next_offset":null}}